October begins with uncertainty in the air. We have the election in 30 days and middle east conflicts are escalating as we speak. Again, investing based on politics and current events is even more hazardous and unreliable than investing on a regular basis. In addition, with the employment report issued on Friday, analysts and economists are more convinced that a soft landing is ahead. Markets expect two additional rate decreases before the end of the...
After all the anticipation and market discounting of the consensus view of the Fed lowering interest rates, it finally happened. Somewhat of a surprise, the first move down was a big one-50 basis points or ½%. The Fed also said they expect a couple of more moves down in the Fed funds rate before the end of the year. The total reduction for the year 1%. This is the Feds attempt for a “soft landing”...
Talk about good news and bad news and bad news and good news. We have it all and markets are reacting on a daily basis. Sell off and recovery, recovery and sell off. This week is a big one. 100% expectation that the Fed will reduce interest rates. The question is ¼ point or ½ point. Often the Fed is behind the curve with interest rates. The bond market has already priced in a reduction...
The anticipation of lower interest rates has been driving markets for the entire year. Looks like we are finally there but the fat lady has not sung yet. A September cut by the Fed has been likely confirmed by chairman Powell at the annual Jackson Hole conference as expected. Even with markets typically discounting news about 6 months in advance, this news drove a substantial rally all week peaking on Friday. This anticipated rate reduction...
What a week in the stock market. Talk about volatility-we saw it this week as markets rallied toward their highs after a monumental sell off last week. The rally was encouraged by positive economic signs including bullish consumer spending at the same time new jobs numbers were lower than expected. Goldilocks economy appears again. We are seeing confirmation that the jobs market is weakening but consumer spending continues on the retail level increasing confidence that...
The past week started with a selloff in markets due to fear of a slowing economy and possible recession. It was a severe sell off because formerly good news (economy slowing and lower interest rates) turned into bad news. We have discussed many times the bad news is good news, and good news is bad news and then of course the bad news is bad news is what we witnessed this past week. Despite the...
Inflation numbers confirm market assessment that the Fed is headed to the first reduction in interest rates at their September meeting. The Fed is scheduled to meet in August, but markets feel the reduction in interest rates is more likely in September. The day before, we received the first numbers on GDP growth for the 2nd quarter indicating stronger economic growth than economists expected at 2.8%. Some might say this is a goldilocks economy with...
Don’t blink because you might miss it. Market strategy shifted at the end of last week and beginning of this week. The 7 winners that have lifted market averages to records as recently as two weeks ago became pariahs within a couple of days. Sentiment changed overnight from large cap growth (7 stocks) to small and midcap stocks. As far as growth vs. value there was no question that small cap and value were the...
Our clients have been telling us, and we hear you. You want to know what the impact of this year’s election may have on your portfolio management. We do not base investment decisions on politics. Markets certainly do react in the short term, to election results for instance, and those reactions can be short lived - very short lived with the election of Donald Trump in 2016. Back then, the Futures markets indicated an extreme...
Cash in money market accounts is yielding 5% or better. FDIC online savings accounts earn around 4.3%. Purchasing 1 year US Treasuries provides a yield of better than 5% and is state tax free. How long will this high rate continue? Of course, no one knows, and predictions have ranged from up to 5 rate cuts in 2024 to more recently, no rate cuts in 2024. Predicting interest rates is no more accurate than predicting...
Today the SP500 made a new high today Monday 6/17. Market optimism is at a high based on typical risk measurements such as the Volatility Index or VIX. Investors are optimistic about at least one interest rate reduction and maybe two this year. Three interest rate deductions next year are expected. Stock splits are in the news especially in the semiconductor area-Broadcom and Nvidia and with the announcement and then subsequent split, the stock values...
We have not discussed the yield curve in quite a while. The classic yield inversion that began in mid 2022 continues. Historically, as mentioned, this has led to a recession within the next year. Analysts developed a consensus in regard to the “inevitable” recession in 2023 that did not happen. How about 2024? Recession? What is the yield curve doing now? It is still inverted and there are now many signs that the economy is...
