To say the year for markets begins not as it ended is palpable. Stocks have lost up to 2% for the year to date with the Nasdaq index being the greatest loss as it was the largest gainer in 2023. The 10-year US Treasury is yielding over 4% again with shorter rates holding steady. Today, inflation numbers fell short of expectations with the wholesale inflation numbers due tomorrow. Analysts expect these numbers to not alter...
Wishing everyone a healthy and happy new year. What a start to the new year in markets. Gains from last year be damned. If the first two days are any indication of the performance for the year, 5% US treasuries will look good. Gains in markets and interest rate declines surprised almost everyone except those that do not follow or engage in prognostication and just accept whatever returns markets offer based on long term historic...
Today, Friday, the Fed’s favored inflation indicator the PCE or Personal Consumption Expenditures declined and is close to the Fed target of 2% so interest rates should continue to decline. We might have more evidence of inflation reduction next week, but we shall see. The stock market, after a one-day large decline continues to move higher in an end of the year rally. Last week the Fed did not disappoint markets. Chairman Powell held rates...
For SAS Clients who send out Qualified Charitable Distribution checks; please send out all of your QCD checks by next week. It can take time for those checks to clear on the 501c3 organization's side, and clients may have to take a traditional distribution to meet their RMD if QCD checks do not fulfill their RMD amount by Dec. 15th. Donor Advised Funds: if you plan to contribute into your Donor Advised Fund for 2023...
Today’s 3rd quarter revised GDP numbers were raised from 4.9% to 5.3% causing the equity markets to rally early in the morning, bond prices to rally because the Fed signals rate increases might be over. Economy grew third quarter more than first estimated The inverted yield curve slope is declining although still inverted. We were discussing investing with a client this week and we described an environment as kind of a “Goldilocks” market environment. However...
The big news this week was the decline in inflation numbers: Inflation was flat in October from the prior month, core CPI hits two-year low The annual inflation rate measured 4% and the monthly increase was .2%, the lowest increase since September 2021. Markets reacted with a steep drop in interest rates as well as the largest gain for averages this year. Also, any anticipated rate increases from the Fed for the last meeting of...
Feels like we are on a Treadmill with markets going nowhere. After a winning streak of 8 days, markets declined on Thursday. There was a 30-year Treasury auction that was received by higher yields than expected. Much of the recent gains in the stock market were influenced by a steadily lowering yield on long term treasuries. In fact, this week the 30-year mortgage rate dropped for the first time in a long time. Cold water...
Today, Friday, the employment report reported fewer jobs than expected. OK, we want employment numbers to be strong because that means the economy is strong right! In today’s and I do mean exactly today, not tomorrow or yesterday, weaker than expected employment numbers mean that perhaps, and I say perhaps, this means that the Federal Reserve could be done raising interest rates. Therefore, stocks rallied yesterday and today to reverse a September and October decline...
The Nasdaq index has entered correction territory with a big decline on Wednesday this week and it looks like the downward trend will continue tomorrow with a disappointing outlook from Meta ( formerly Facebook) after the market closed today. Yesterday, it was the results from Alphabet ( formerly Google) from their cloud division that led the market lower today. On the other hand, Microsoft offered markets good earnings results with a favorable outlook. Thes technology...
As I am watching President Biden addressing Americans and the world from the oval office talking about our overseas crises. This is the worst job in the world or at least the 2nd worst with the Speaker of the House of Representatives taking first place. No denying we have more than our share of challenges at home and abroad. Politics does affect economies but investing based on politics is a very unreliable combination. Part of...
Back to the yield curve. The severe inversion during the last year and a half is reversing. The yield curve is still inverted but it is becoming less steep. The 10-year yield closed at 4.73% up from 3.79 % a year ago and the same rate on January 1 , 2023 . Intermediate and long-term rates are higher across the board. Short term rates are higher across the yield curve as well but the increase...
A looming government shutdown is causing concern among investors with the shutdown scheduled for midnight Saturday. It will have an impact on various sectors of the economy including airline and transportation services, goA looming government shutdownvernment services including publishing the social security increase for 2024, economic statistics from the labor and commerce department, and more. Government Shutdowns Q&A: Everything You Should Know | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget How a government shutdown could impact...
