Another tough week for markets as the Federal Reserve meeting announcement increased the Fed funds rate by ½% but, that was lower than the three previous meetings where rates were increased by ¾%. So, the rate of increase has slowed but the terminal rate or the rate at which the Fed estimates will achieve its goal of slowing inflation is higher at about 5.25%. Timing by the Fed is estimated into 2023 continuing the rate...
Market Now: Consumer increase in spending is slowing down. At least it is growing at a slower rate than last month, says the credit card issuers. Remember the trend is more important than the absolute number. Reflecting recession fears, stocks have been declining this week and the yield curve inversion is steepening at the same time. The Fed meets next week with expectations of a ½ point increase instead of the last 4 meetings increase...
It's recovery time from the big holiday dinner. Time with family and friends contributes to happiness. Of course, it can depend on your relationship with your family. We see a continuum of quality and closeness among our clients in relationship with their families. Sometimes families test our patience and bring out lifelong struggles to the table. We had a wonderful, fun Thanksgiving with a couple of close friends with great food and company. The most...
The tax collector is coming! The calendar year is coming to an end and that is a deadline for most tax reduction/tax deferral strategies. In regard to taxes the usual attention getting date is April 15 which is the filing date. However, in order to impact the tax filing for 2022 that you will submit in 2023, the calendar year is more important. Although we are not tax preparers or tax experts, if you find...
Market Now Inflation outranks politics-at least this week. We have a rule to not invest based on politics, so this week’s market behavior confirms that approach. It is no longer election night but election week. This is true in California, as counting continues. Markets seemed to be disappointed on Wednesday that early voting indicated that Republicans were not meeting expectations of a Wave election and in fact, did much more poorly than raised expectations. Markets...
Market Now Planet Killer Asteroid Spotted Hiding in Sun's Glare. Stock markets and interest rates really don’t matter anymore. We are all gonna die! Well, I guess that’s not going to happen and more mundane events seem more important like the Federal Reserve, employment, consumer spending, savings, interest rates, real estate and inflation! This week, with October ending with a very positive month in terms of market performance and boom, the November Federal Reserve meeting...
Market Now We have seen a bounce back in market averages after approaching year to date lows earlier in the month. Market’s higher moves have occurred even as interest rates continue to increase across the yield curve. The US Treasury yield curve continues to be inverted indicating an economic slowdown ahead, but investor sentiment is off its lows indicating slightly more “bullish” optimism among individual investors. However, the increase in bullish sentiment is modest with...
Market Now “There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.”– John Kenneth Galbraith Predicting the future has been a fascination for humans since time began. Some predictions have actually turned out to be true. For instance, you could say economists are correct with their forecasts 50% of the time. We just don’t know which 50% are correct. Each year the Wall Street Journal surveys economists...
Market Now The big day this week is Thursday when the latest CPI numbers are released. In this case, if CPI is lower than expected that should be good news all the way around. Right now, economists expect a reading of 8.1% down from 8.3% in August. There is no doubt that the impact of the Fed raising rates at a record pace is having a significant impact on the economy however it is delayed...
Reminder: focus on what you can control. Markets are one area that we cannot control. Look at this week so far: the first two days of this week we had two of the biggest market gains of the year after a miserable market decline for September. Markets are not under our control. Regarding market behavior, what we can control is our response to market moves. Emotions do not play an adequate role in making decisions...
FAFSA Season starts October 1st, 2022 The majority of Americans pay for college with a mix of current parent and student cash flow (work income), savings, student aid, scholarships, gifts, and student and private loans. Most importantly, student loans have an impact on students and parents. SAS usually recommends parents prioritize a plan for funding their own retirement before prioritizing paying for college, due to the fact that a student can obtain loans to pay...
Uptick in Rates The Federal Reserve meeting ended Wednesday this week with an announcement of a .75% increase in the Fed funds rate from 2.25-2.5% to 3.00-3.25%. This certainly was not unexpected as interest rates had been rising in anticipation. 30-year mortgage rates are now above 6% and not surprising mortgage refinancing and home sales have slowed down dramatically. More signs are increasing that the economy is slowing down. Layoffs are increasing and the unemployment...
