I read an interesting analysis of 2024 by Citi Private Bank. I also attended a meeting for clients of Citi Private bank where their analysis was presented. Basically, we have the “Goldilocks” economy and markets awaiting us in 2024. I was looking for Goldilocks in the audience at the meeting. Declining interest rates, an undervalued stock market except for the “Magnificent Seven” (Microsoft , alphabet, amazon, NVidia , meta, tesla and apple. These stocks were...
Markets are counting on 4 rate reductions this year and were hoping that the Fed announcement this week would add to those expectations. The Fed announcement and then Chairman Powell’s news conference did not deliver. The Fed announcement moved from indicating possible increases to confirming expectations of lower interest rates ahead, just not now and maybe not in March. The sell off on Wednesday was immediate for markets and those averages that had the largest...
Today Gross Domestic Product first estimates for the last quarter of 2023 were released. The economy expanded 3.1% from a year earlier due to strong consumer spending and hiring. The domestic US economy continues to defy predictions for a slowdown or recession imminently. It seems the stock market predicted this good news with the rally concentrated mostly in the last quarter of 2023. The stock market has continued to rally based on rate reduction expectations...
Scams are very dangerous. The reason they continue to accumulate victims is they prey on vulnerable human emotions that are part of each of us. All individuals are vulnerable. Scammers are becoming more sophisticated as an article in sfchronicle.com where artificial intelligence was used to copy a son’s voice and used in a call to his parents about a car accident where he ran over a pregnant woman and was arrested. The call was about...
To say the year for markets begins not as it ended is palpable. Stocks have lost up to 2% for the year to date with the Nasdaq index being the greatest loss as it was the largest gainer in 2023. The 10-year US Treasury is yielding over 4% again with shorter rates holding steady. Today, inflation numbers fell short of expectations with the wholesale inflation numbers due tomorrow. Analysts expect these numbers to not alter...
Wishing everyone a healthy and happy new year. What a start to the new year in markets. Gains from last year be damned. If the first two days are any indication of the performance for the year, 5% US treasuries will look good. Gains in markets and interest rate declines surprised almost everyone except those that do not follow or engage in prognostication and just accept whatever returns markets offer based on long term historic...
Today, Friday, the Fed’s favored inflation indicator the PCE or Personal Consumption Expenditures declined and is close to the Fed target of 2% so interest rates should continue to decline. We might have more evidence of inflation reduction next week, but we shall see. The stock market, after a one-day large decline continues to move higher in an end of the year rally. Last week the Fed did not disappoint markets. Chairman Powell held rates...
For SAS Clients who send out Qualified Charitable Distribution checks; please send out all of your QCD checks by next week. It can take time for those checks to clear on the 501c3 organization's side, and clients may have to take a traditional distribution to meet their RMD if QCD checks do not fulfill their RMD amount by Dec. 15th. Donor Advised Funds: if you plan to contribute into your Donor Advised Fund for 2023...
Today’s 3rd quarter revised GDP numbers were raised from 4.9% to 5.3% causing the equity markets to rally early in the morning, bond prices to rally because the Fed signals rate increases might be over. Economy grew third quarter more than first estimated The inverted yield curve slope is declining although still inverted. We were discussing investing with a client this week and we described an environment as kind of a “Goldilocks” market environment. However...
The big news this week was the decline in inflation numbers: Inflation was flat in October from the prior month, core CPI hits two-year low The annual inflation rate measured 4% and the monthly increase was .2%, the lowest increase since September 2021. Markets reacted with a steep drop in interest rates as well as the largest gain for averages this year. Also, any anticipated rate increases from the Fed for the last meeting of...
Feels like we are on a Treadmill with markets going nowhere. After a winning streak of 8 days, markets declined on Thursday. There was a 30-year Treasury auction that was received by higher yields than expected. Much of the recent gains in the stock market were influenced by a steadily lowering yield on long term treasuries. In fact, this week the 30-year mortgage rate dropped for the first time in a long time. Cold water...
Today, Friday, the employment report reported fewer jobs than expected. OK, we want employment numbers to be strong because that means the economy is strong right! In today’s and I do mean exactly today, not tomorrow or yesterday, weaker than expected employment numbers mean that perhaps, and I say perhaps, this means that the Federal Reserve could be done raising interest rates. Therefore, stocks rallied yesterday and today to reverse a September and October decline...
