Staggering Sums: Record Highs and the Rule of Unintended Consequences All news seems to be good news as we finish April: Index Price April 1 Price April 30 April Performance Nasdaq 100 24,019.99 27,452.12 +14.29% S&P 500 6,575.32 7,209.01 +9.64% Dow Jones DJIA 46,565.74 49,652.14 +6.63% MSCI World Index 4,176.79* 4,625.50** ~+10.74% GDP growth for the first quarter was released at 2%, a little below expectations of 2.2%, but close enough. The economy is still...
Main Street is cratering. Wall Street is celebrating. Go figure. We are sitting in the middle of a global stalemate, gas prices are exploding, and the average American feels like they are underwater. According to the latest data, consumer sentiment did not just drop, it fell off a cliff. We are at a historic low of 47.6. That is lower than the Great Recession. Lower than the 2022 inflation peak. But look at the tickers...
The Familiar Echo of 2022–2024 Does this sound familiar? The stock market is carving out new highs, economic data looks “okay” on paper, and employment numbers remain steady. Yet there’s a massive disconnect. Those in charge of the economy are sounding optimistic, claiming everything is good, a sentiment we heard repeatedly between 2022 and 2024. Even though the top-line economy looks stable, many Americans are simply not feeling it. During the Biden years, the term...
Animal spirits can be scary and can work for both declines and advances in a very volatile environment. It is pretty easy to see the risks to the current economy, including inflation, global conflict, chaotic leadership, and questions about economic growth. As we have discussed before in Market volatility is head spinning, markets do not need much to become unsettled when uncertainty is already elevated. David and Goliath Is Not Dead You do not need...
The war continues and markets, although volatile on a daily basis, have reacted as if the war could end any day. And in fact, it could end any day. Problem is a unilateral declaration by the US is only part of the equation with Israel and Iran having a significant say. The Energy & Derivative Squeeze In the meantime, oil/gas prices continue to increase, and increases are happening in the many derivative products relation to...
As outlined in the newsletter a couple of weeks ago, we reviewed market movements during war and then 1 year later, demonstrating that investing based on wars is not an effective strategy. Given those results, we are only 3 weeks into the war with Iran, so we do not have the wisdom of 1 year later. Today the Nasdaq entered correction territory, meaning a 10% decline from the recent high. Index 2026 All-Time High Current...
Funny thing about wars. It can be expected for markets to decline. And sure enough, market averages are declining. Here are some stats from Google AI chatbot Gemini: Average One-Day Drop: Roughly -1.0% Average Peak-to-Trough Decline: Roughly -5% to -6% Average Days to Bottom: Approximately 21–28 days (3–4 weeks) Average Days to Full Recovery: Approximately 28–45 days (back to pre-conflict levels) Event Start Date Max Drawdown (S&P 500) Days to Recovery Pearl Harbor Dec 1941...
News just keeps coming. Today employment numbers were released showing a loss of 92,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate ticking higher. Wage growth was still ok, keeping up with inflation. Job losses were reported across the board. With inflation persisting and job numbers weakening, the Fed is caught between a rock and a hard place. As we have discussed previously regarding inflation and Federal Reserve policy, this type of environment makes policy decisions increasingly difficult...
The economy continues to muddle along and so does the S&P 500. Since October the S&P 500 has been flat. Year to date the index has gained 1.08 percent. The Nasdaq has also been flat since October 2025 and is negative year to date. After repeated record highs in 2025 equity markets are consolidating. As we have discussed in prior newsletters including Markets Are Moving Faster Than the News and 2026 Market Outlook, index performance...
The continued media focus on the Epstein files has reignited a broader conversation — not just about individuals — but about institutions, power, and accountability. Whenever stories surface involving elites operating by a different set of rules, it chips away at public trust. And trust is foundational to financial markets. If we follow the rules — save, invest, insure, plan, pay taxes, educate our children — we expect a stable and predictable future. When institutions...
Market Update: Warsh Nomination, Rates, Shutdown Headlines, and Diversification Updated for Friday, February 6, 2026 Markets can be like the weather. Hard to predict and wait a minute and it changes. After repeated records in 2026 equity markets are retreating. Declines are always faster than gains and that is what we are seeing. Especially hard hit is crypto which is down 50% year to date and precious metals have had precipitous falls during the past...
Each day feels packed with chaos and uncertainty. By the time we distribute a newsletter, events have already shifted, leaving us perpetually behind the curve. The pace is exhausting. Yet despite the noise, financial markets continue to take each shock in stride. As we have discussed in prior market volatility and policy uncertainty updates on the SAS Blog, markets often adapt faster than narratives change. Venezuela, Oil Policy, and Capital Allocation Risks Last week’s focus...
