Funny thing about wars. It can be expected for markets to decline. And sure enough, market averages are declining. Here are some stats from Google AI chatbot Gemini: Average One-Day Drop: Roughly -1.0% Average Peak-to-Trough Decline: Roughly -5% to -6% Average Days to Bottom: Approximately 21–28 days (3–4 weeks) Average Days to Full Recovery: Approximately 28–45 days (back to pre-conflict levels) Event Start Date Max Drawdown (S&P 500) Days to Recovery Pearl Harbor Dec 1941...
News just keeps coming. Today employment numbers were released showing a loss of 92,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate ticking higher. Wage growth was still ok, keeping up with inflation. Job losses were reported across the board. With inflation persisting and job numbers weakening, the Fed is caught between a rock and a hard place. As we have discussed previously regarding inflation and Federal Reserve policy, this type of environment makes policy decisions increasingly difficult...
The economy continues to muddle along and so does the S&P 500. Since October the S&P 500 has been flat. Year to date the index has gained 1.08 percent. The Nasdaq has also been flat since October 2025 and is negative year to date. After repeated record highs in 2025 equity markets are consolidating. As we have discussed in prior newsletters including Markets Are Moving Faster Than the News and 2026 Market Outlook, index performance...
The continued media focus on the Epstein files has reignited a broader conversation — not just about individuals — but about institutions, power, and accountability. Whenever stories surface involving elites operating by a different set of rules, it chips away at public trust. And trust is foundational to financial markets. If we follow the rules — save, invest, insure, plan, pay taxes, educate our children — we expect a stable and predictable future. When institutions...
Market Update: Warsh Nomination, Rates, Shutdown Headlines, and Diversification Updated for Friday, February 6, 2026 Markets can be like the weather. Hard to predict and wait a minute and it changes. After repeated records in 2026 equity markets are retreating. Declines are always faster than gains and that is what we are seeing. Especially hard hit is crypto which is down 50% year to date and precious metals have had precipitous falls during the past...
Each day feels packed with chaos and uncertainty. By the time we distribute a newsletter, events have already shifted, leaving us perpetually behind the curve. The pace is exhausting. Yet despite the noise, financial markets continue to take each shock in stride. As we have discussed in prior market volatility and policy uncertainty updates on the SAS Blog, markets often adapt faster than narratives change. Venezuela, Oil Policy, and Capital Allocation Risks Last week’s focus...
New year, more new market highs, more chaos. International stocks continue to outperform, and interest rates remain unchanged for the year. For historical perspective on volatility and market cycles, see Uncertainty Has Risen. The current investigation of Chairman Powell has drawn a negative reaction from both sides of the aisle, as well as from past Federal Reserve chairmen and current Federal Reserve governors. The White House has blamed U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro, who responded by...
The number year has changed, but the whirlwind continues. This includes the capture of the President of Venezuela with no plan other than oil, and even that is in a state of flux. Consistent with contradictory goals, the administration wants to increase the supply of oil to lower the price of gasoline for the mid-term elections; however, the lower price of oil makes exploration for oil unprofitable. We will see how that gets resolved. From...
Affordability, affordability. Cost, cost. Inflation, inflation. Employment, employment. And the traditional Santa Claus rally, will we have one? As the year ends, where are we on these major economic issues. The economic uncertainty described in previous market commentary continues. The last two weeks have shown hesitancy and doubt about the Artificial Intelligence rally of the past year. As the selloff continued for four days, inflation numbers came out today at 2.7% month over month, closer...
With all the turmoil, markets still have the same focus they’ve had all year. A bounce-back by the big AI ten has kept markets near highs as the year draws to an end. The odds on a rate reduction in December are near 90%, even with the mixed economic data. The big economic concern remains the labor markets. Layoffs are increasing, and we saw a surprise drop in private employment this week. The unemployment rate...
After several weeks of analysts beating the drum about a potential AI bubble, Nvidia delivered blowout earnings—only for many of the same analysts to pivot and say this proves we are not in a bubble. Yet despite Nvidia’s strong forward guidance, concerns about an overvalued market and a potential AI-driven disconnect remain. Today’s market captured that uncertainty perfectly. Stocks opened with big gains, reversed by mid-morning, and swung over 3% intraday—ultimately closing sharply negative. The...
The no-hire, no-fire AI economy is on the precipice, with renewed doubts about an expected interest rate decrease at the December Fed meeting. October Labor Department data is still missing, and uncertainty continues to influence both markets and sentiment. Consumer confidence is plummeting—now approaching 2022 levels and marking the second-lowest reading in history. Data is piling up showing Americans are living in two very different financial realities. The top 20%—those with significant wealth—continue spending and...
